IMF projects global economic moderation, eyes on China’s stimulus measures
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On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented its World Economic Outlook at the Marrakech meetings, forecasting a moderation in global economic growth to 3.1% in 2024. The forecast incorporates the effects of President Tinubu’s energy subsidy removal and exchange rate unification reforms. Daniel Leigh and Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas of the IMF noted that Sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria face challenges due to demonetization, high inflation, and shocks in agriculture and hydrocarbons sectors.
The IMF also highlighted that advanced economies are expected to slow significantly due to policy tightening, with emerging markets and developing economies also seeing a modest decline in growth. Global and core inflation rates are projected to decline steadily due to lower commodity prices but are not expected to return to the historical average (2000–19) until 2025.
Earlier on Tuesday, the IMF maintained its steady 2023 global growth forecast at 3.0%, while reducing the 2024 outlook to 2.9%. This adjustment reflects a struggling global economy. As a response, China is considering new stimulus measures and a higher budget deficit to GDP ratio to meet its 2023 GDP growth target. This news led to a surge in European luxury retail stocks like LVMH. European home appliances and semiconductor stocks also rose following LG Electronics’ preliminary results.
