Bitcoin: Only a Bounce or a New Bull?
In our last update, see here, we presented two Elliot Wave Principle (EWP) options for Bitcoin (BTC), as well as its halving-cycle-related four phases. More about those in a later update. We found,
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Fast forward, and BTC is holding above its 9/11 low at $24,919 and has so far staged a two-wave rally: grey W-a, and W-b. The latter bottomed, most likely, on 9/25 at $26,004; right in the forecasted target zone. Now grey W-c of green W-b should be underway to ideally $28500-30000. See figure 1 below.
Figure 1. The daily chart of BTC with several technical indicators
BTC/USD-DailyHowever, as stated, there is an alternative in that the 2nd wave could already have bottomed, which is presented in Figure 2 below. If BTC stays above $26,004 and especially the 9/11 low at $24,919 it can try to establish an impulse move higher (green Waves 1 through 5 from the 9/11 low).
Figure 2. The daily chart of BTC with several technical indicators
BTC/USD-DailyThus, BTC bottomed precisely where we thought it would and should now be at least in a countertrend rally to $28.5-30K before making a marginally lower low at around $23.5K. Alternatively, the low is already in place and BTC is ready to target around $30-33K before we see the next buyable pullback. Regardless, based on BTC’s past cycles, made up of four more minor phases, it is currently in the accumulation phase and thus close to the next Bull run, which can target $100-200+K.
